Storm chances continue

160825_921_SchoolcastThe remnants of Wednesday evening’s showers and thundershowers should be moving out or have moved out by mid-morning.  That being said, look for mostly cloudy skies with some breaks in the cloud cover during the day.

160825_921_DaycastAnother chance for showers and thundershowers for tonight, but I don’t think we’ll see the scope of the storms that traveled through the region on Wednesday. However, the Storm Prediction Center has an area of Marginal Risk that stretches thorough eastern Kansas into west central and north central Missouri. This does include portions of the 921 listening area.

160825_921_Day 1 0500GMTMy thoughts on Thursday are this. Any remaining storms will continue to move off to the east, and chances of redevelopment will hold off until the afternoon hours.  Any storm formation this afternoon and evening will not be as severe, but I won’t rule out the possibility of an isolated thundershower.

What we need to be aware of is this. There is a possibility of an isolated storm, but most of the risk will be from wind gusts and the potential for isolated heavy rain which could warrant the issuance of a flash flood watch or flash flood warnings if needed.

160825_921_AdvanceTemperatures today will be in the mid 80s, but if we get enough breaks in the cloud cover, temperatures in the upper 80s could be possible. Normal highs for today are in the upper 80s.  We’ll see continued rain chances overnight and the lows across the region will be in the the upper 60s.

After today, rain chances will continue through the weekend. Mostly 30-percent chances, but the chance is there. Temperatures will remain near normal for the extended period.

Here’s your Quickcast:

Today: Showers moving out early, mostly cloudy skies highs in the mid 80s. 40 percent chance of showers and thundershowers.

Tonight: Rain chances continue, lows in the upper 60s.

Friday: Partly cloudy skies, highs in the low 80s. 30 percent chance of showers and thundershowers.

Friday night: Rain chances continue, lows in the upper 60s.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy skies, highs in the mid 80s. 40 percent chance of showers and thundershowers.


160825_921_7 Day

Posted in Uncategorized

Severe Thunderstorm Watch valid through 11 p.m. Wednesday

8:30 P.M. Update – Severe thunderstorms are moving through western Missouri and eastern Kansas.  The storms are roughly along Interstate 35.  These storms have had a history of strong winds and heavy rain.  This line of storms will continue to move east-northeast through the area.


160824_921_Thunderstorm Watch BThe National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of eastern Kansas and western Missouri.

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected over the watch area in the next couple of hours.  The atmosphere is favorable for organized severe storms and super cell development. 

Damaging winds will be the main threat for these storms, however the stronger storms could produce severe hail and an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

This watch is valid through 11 p.m. Wednesday.

Posted in Forecast

Wednesday: Warm and wet

160824_921_SchoolcastWednesday will be a warm and potentially wet day.  The cold front out to the west has slowed, but not stalled over the western portions of Kansas.  It will continue to move our way, but for now were stuck in the warm air mass in front of the frontal boundary.

That will give us the chance for more showers and thundershowers today and tomorrow.  However, the chances are not as great as I originally projected earlier in the week. Chances stand at 40 percent today and tomorrow. 1650824_921_Daycast

Chances improve the further north you go, as portions of northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas are in a slight risk for severe storms today.  Storms rolled through that region beginning Tuesday afternoon and were active until well after midnight.

Today is the warmest day so far this week. Highs around the region will be in the upper 80s. Combine that with dewpoints in the 70s and it will feel flat miserable out there with heat index values approaching triple digits.

160824_921_AdvanceOvernight lows won’t provide much relief. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70 into the weekend.

We’ll see a break on Friday from the rainfall chances, as the cold front finally pushes through the state and moves on eastward. Back to more rain chances over the weekend and into the first of the week as a warm front will lift back through the region into Iowa on Saturday. That will bring back the rain chances and muggy conditions.

Here’s your Quickcast:

160824_921_QuickcastToday: Partly sunny skies, highs in the upper 80s. 40 percent chance of showers and thundershowers, particularly after 3 p.m.

Tonight: Rain chances continue, lows in the lower 70s.

Thursday: Partly sunny skies and a bit cooler, highs in the mid 80s. 40 percent chance of showers and thundershowers.

Thursday night: Chance of showers and thundershowers, lows in the upper 60s.

Friday: Partly sunny skies, lows in the lower 80s.


160824_921_7 Day

Posted in Forecast

Dry early, but you could get wet later in the day

160823_921_DaycastWe’ll see some peeks of sunshine early, as clouds will begin to build ahead of a cold front advancing across the northern plains.  Most of the rain chances to day will be after the noon hour, but those chances are not too significant. A 30 percent chance of rain through the afternoon hours.

Tonight as clouds continue to build we’ll push rain chances up to near 50 percent, as temperatures drop to the lower 70s. 

160823_921_AdvanceTomorrow is the best chance of showers and thundershowers as we’ll have mostly cloudy conditions. A couple of embedded thundershowers will be possible, but the chance for severe weather is relatively low.

Things will begin to move out overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning and we should see partly cloudy skies late Thursday afternoon. 

Friday will be cooler, highs in the low 80s ahead of our next chance for showers on Saturday.

Here’s your Quickcast:

160823_921_QuickcastToday:  Mostly cloudy skies, 30 percent chance of showers and thunder showers in the afternoon, highs in the mid 80s.

Tonight: Rain chances increase, lows in the lower 70s.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, 60 percent chance of showers and thundershowers, highs in the upper 80s.

Wednesday night: Rain chances continue, lows in the lower 70s.

Thursday: Showers move out and skies begin to clear, highs in the lower 80s.


160823_921_7 Day

Posted in Forecast

Warmer, wet weather ahead

160822_921_DaycastOn the heels of a good weekend, warmer temperatures begin to venture back into the region.  The southerly breezes are allowing some warmer air to travel back north.

We are still under the influence of an area of high pressure and now that were on the western side of it, warmer and moister air will begin to flow back into the central plains.

160822_921_AdvanceThis will do a couple of things, one, it will bring temperatures back to near normal levels, normal this time of year is 88 degrees. Secondly, it will begin to push dewpoints back into mid 60s by Tuesday afternoon and into the 70s on Wednesday.

A weak warm frontal boundary will cross Kansas and by Tuesday night will be in central Missouri.  This will allow for chances of showers and thundershowers to begin Tuesday night and into the day on Wednesday.

Tuesday evening’s chance for rain is at 40-percent and we’ll ramp it up to 60-percent on Wednesday.  Rain chances will diminish on Thursday as a cold front will move across the state and bring in dryer air and cooler temperatures.

Here’s your Quickcast:

160822_921_QuickcastToday: Clear skies and warmer, highs in the mid-80s.

Tonight: Some clouds filter in, warmer and humid, lows in the mid-60s.

Tuesday: Clouds continue to build, mostly cloudy by the afternoon, highs in the mid-80s. 40-percent chance of rain late in the day.

Tuesday night: Rain chances continue, mostly cloudy skies, lows in the upper 60s.

Wednesday: 60-percent chance of showers and thundershowers through the day, highs in the upper 80s.


160822_921_7 Day

Posted in Forecast

Sunny Sunday, warming up ahead

160821_921_DaycastAfter this morning’s cool temperatures, temperatures will seem to be  “fall-like” again.

Temperatures around the area today will be in the mid-80s. Some may not make it out of the 70s, but considering this is the start of the third week of August, we can’t beat these temperatures.

Tonight we’ll fall back into the upper 50’s for one last time, as we’ll be back in the low 60s for the remainder of the week.

This upcoming week will be dry on the ends and a little wet in the middle. Rain chances pop in on Tuesday and Wednesday and pop back out towards the end of the week.

We have an area of low pressure that is moving along the Missouri-Arkansas border and will continue to move off to the east.  That will keep us dry through the early morning hours on Tuesday.

160821_921_AdvanceMonday and Tuesday we’ll see the effect of the high pressure passing by as warmer air will move into the region on those days.  We’ll see chances for showers and thundershowers late on Tuesday ahead of a warm front that will lift through the state on Tuesday evening and through the day on Wednesday.

This frontal movement will spawn the opportunity for showers and thundershowers. 30-percent on Tuesday afternoon and 60 percent on Wednesday. These storm chances will be pushed out on Thursday as a cold front will push through the state and move the storms off to the east.

This frontal passage will again drop daily high temperatures into the low 80s for the rest of the week.  Lows through the week will remain in the 60s.

Here’s your Quickcast:

160821_921_QuickcastToday: Mostly sunny skies, light northerly winds, and highs in the lower 80s.

Tonight: Clear skies, a wind shift will occur and swing the winds to a southerly direction. Lows in the upper 50s.

Monday: Clear skies and southerly winds will push afternoon highs into the mid-80s.

Monday night: Clouds will increase, lows in the low 60s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy skies increasing to mostly cloudy later in the day. 30 percent chance of showers and thundershowers in the afternoon and into the night. Highs in the mid-80s.


160821_921_7 Day

Posted in Forecast

Showers move out, cooler temps this weekend

160820_921_DaycastLast night’s showers and thundershowers will move out and should be out of the region before the noon hour. The showers will leave behind cooler and drier air for the weekend.

Most areas around the area received between one-half to one inch of rainfall on Friday night. 

Today, we’ll see clearing skies this afternoon and what could be best described as fall temperatures.  Look for the highs today to be in the upper 70s. Overnight lows tonight will fall in the upper 50s.

160820_921_Advance PlanningThis temperature pattern will return on Sunday as once again clear skies and temperatures in the upper 70s will return.

Monday we’ll see some warmer air flow into the region and temperatures in the 80s will return.

I’m looking a the next chance for rainfall to return on Tuesday, as those pesky warm-air pop-up thunderstorms will return on Tuesday afternoon. This is in front of another upper-level disturbance that will travel out of the Rockies and into the northern plains. This will force another cold front through the area and bring us a 50-50 chance of showers and thundershowers on Wednesday and that chance will last through Thursday.

Mostly sunny skies will return on Friday just in time for Friday night football.

Here’s your Quickcast:

160820_921_QuickcastToday: Showers ending early, and clouds beginning to clear in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s.

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies, lots of moonshine. Lows in the upper 50s.

Sunday: Sunny skies, highs in the upper 70s.

Sunday night: Clear skies, lows in the upper 50s.

Monday: Clear skies and warmer. Highs in the lower 80s.


160820_921_7 Day

Posted in Forecast

Rain chances, football, and air conditioning

Friday's Daycast

Friday’s Daycast

Today will be the day of change. A cold front is moving towards the region compliments of an upper-level Canadian trough that is moving through the northern plains.

Precip Projector - 3PM

Precip Projector – 3PM

The bulk of our rain chances will coincide with the arrival of the cold front, but with the warm air mass out in front of the frontal boundary, some pop-up storms are possible. 

Precip Projector - 7PM

Precip Projector – 7PM

Most of west-central Missouri is in that zone of “you might see a thunderstorm, but you might not see a thunderstorm”.

That being said, I look for the main event to arrive sometime after the Friday night football games. A look at the precip projector for 7 p.m. shows the storms out to our west over central Kansas.  A look at the 10 p.m. precip projector shows them “on our doorstep”.

I look for the showers and thundershowers to continue overnight and end by mid-morning on Saturday.  We should see some clearing beginning during the afternoon hours on Saturday. 

Precip Projector - 10PM

Precip Projector – 10PM

The main concern with these storms is strong winds and periods of heavy rain. I don’t see enough to cause areal flooding, but rainfall rates could press to cause flash flooding concerns.

Temperature wise, Friday we’ll be back into the mid-80s. Some could see higher temperatures if the cloud cover is delayed. The longer we have clear and partly cloudy skies the warmer it will become.

160819_921_Advance

Advance Planning

Once the cold front passes through, we’ll cool off considerably. I don’t see the temperatures making it back into the 80s over the weekend. We’ll see highs on Saturday and Sunday in the upper 70s and lows will drop into the upper 50’s across the region.

Once we get into the work week, temps will climb back into the 80s, but we’ll still be below the seasonal norm of 89.  Another chance of rain returns mid-week, but we’ll check into that over the weekend.

Here’s your Quickcast:

160819_921_Quickcast

Friday Quickcast

Today: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies, chances for afternoon pop-up thundershowers highs in the mid-80s.

Tonight: Increasing cloudiness, 50 percent chance of showers and thundershowers, lows in the upper 60s.

Saturday: Showers and thundershowers ending early, clearing skies during the afternoon, highs in the upper 70s.

Saturday night: Clear skies, lows in the upper 50s.

Sunday: Clear skies, highs in the upper 70s.  


Your 7 Day forecast

Your 7 Day forecast

Posted in Forecast

Tapping up the thermostat

160818_921_DaycastA little warmer for your Thursday. Temperatures today will be right around the 90-degree mark.  We’re still under the control of an area of high pressure, but that’s all about the change.

Friday we’ll begin to see the change as an upper-level trough will enter the northern plains and with it, an accompanying cold front will move through the region. Our next chance for rain will come with it and we’ll have chances for Friday afternoon through mid-day Saturday.

Right now we are looking at a 50-percent chance of showers and thundershowers on Friday night and a 40-percent chance for Saturday morning. 

As of now, it doesn’t look like the rain will move through the region until late Friday night. I think that the high school football season openers will be dry, but I can’t rule out a sprinkle or two. 

160818_921_AdvanceThere is a chance that some storms may develop out in front of the cold front in the warm air mass that will be settled over the area.  I’ll keep monitoring this to see what the timeline and the chances for any significant storms may be.

I believe that the showers will move out of the region by Saturday afternoon.

Once this cold front passes through, we’ll see cooler temperatures for the weekend and into the first of the week.  Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will top out in the upper 70s, and we’ll be in the lower 80s for Monday and Tuesday.

Overnight low temperatures will be almost fall-like, as we could be down into the upper 50s on Saturday and Sunday night.

Once we get into next week we’ll see another push toward normal temperatures and another chance for rain towards the end of the week.

Here’s your Quickcast:

160818_921_QuickcastToday: Mostly sunny skies and warmer. Highs in the low 90s.

Tonight: Mostly clear skies, lows in the lower 70s.

Friday: Sunny start, then clouds build in. Highs in the mid-80s. Chance for showers and thundershowers after 7 p.m.

Friday night: Mostly cloudy skies, 40 percent chance of showers and thundershowers, lows in the upper 90s.

Saturday: 30 percent chance of showers, diminishing by the afternoon hours. High in the upper 70s.


160818_921_7 Day

Posted in Forecast

Wednesday Quickcast

Here’s your Wednesday Quickcast:

Today: Mostly sunny skies, highs in the upper 80s.

Tonight: Clear skies, lows in the low 70s.

Thursday: Sunny and warmer, highs in the low 90s.

Thursday night: Partly clear skies, lows in the low 70s.

Friday: Partly cloudy and a chance of showers and thundershowers, highs in the mid-80s.

Posted in Forecast

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