Winter storm ahead

Record setting high temperatures on Wednesday. Thermometers across the region topped out at or near 70-degrees across the region, before the cold front moved through.  As you can see by the 1 p.m. temperature map the cold front was making its way through the region during the afternoon.

Temperatures were in the upper 20s across north central Kansas and south central Nebraska. And most of southern Kansas and central and southern Missouri were in the mid to upper 60s.

By 10 p.m. the cold front had moved through most of Kansas and was cutting across central Missouri. Temperatures ranged in the upper 20s over most of the Sunflower State and northern and northwestern Missouri, back into the 60s over southern and southeastern Missouri.

The cold front that brought us the temperature swing will move to the south and eventually stall out across northern Arkansas.  Precipitation will begin to develop along the Missouri – Arkansas border Thursday evening and move to the north.

Here’s where everything gets a bit tricky. The cold front pushed through and brought the temperatures down into the lower 30s and upper 20s at the surface, but the temperatures aloft are still above freezing.  Here’s a look at the temperatures at 12 a.m.  As you can see the temperatures at approximately 3200 feet are warmer than those at the surface.

 

This trend will continue through the weekend.  That being said, the location of the freezing line will determine how much ice accumulation will occur.  That’s because once the rain falls out of the warm pocket, it will freeze when it hits the frozen surfaces. So, if the freezing line moves back to the north then ice accumulation will not be as great.

Still a few tweaks to make as the dependent factor are the temperatures both at the surface and at higher altitudes.

Because of the uncertainty of the forecasted temperatures and how much ice will accumulate, the National Weather Service offices have issued as Winter Weather Advisory through a portion of the weekend.  The advisories are basically south of the U.S. 54 corridor through Missouri.

As of now the advisories only include following counties in the KMOE/KMAM listening area: Bourbon county in Kansas and Vernon, St. Clair and Cedar counties in Missouri.

Once the weekend gets through, things will warm up as the cold front that is causing all this concern moves back to the north as a warm front.  Temperatures the first part of the week will be back into the upper 40s and low 50s which should help to melt the ice away.

Here’s your Quickcast:

Today: Mostly cloudy skies and colder. Highs in the mid-30s.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy skies, lows near 20.

Friday: Overcast skies, freezing rain will begin to move in during the morning hours. Highs in the lower 30s.

Friday night: Overcast skies, freezing rain continues. Lows in the mid-20s.

Saturday: Freezing rain continues. Highs in the mid-30s.

 

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